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Mortgage Market Update
Mike Gurley
Mike Gurley
Monday, October 26, 2026
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Builder confidence hits 14-year low—what it means for you |
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This week brought some sobering news about the housing market's near-term outlook. We're breaking down what's really happening and how it affects your home-buying or refinancing plans.
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National Mortgage Rates · November 2, 2026
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Conventional 30-Year
7.13%
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Source: Optimal Blue daily mortgage indices via FRED
Rates shown are national mortgage index rates and are provided for informational purposes only. Actual rates vary based on credit profile, loan amount, and market conditions. Please contact us for a personalized rate quote.
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Refinancing Basics
When refinancing actually makes sense
Refinancing isn't right for everyone, but it's worth understanding when it might work in your favor. The most common reason people refinance is to lower their monthly payment or shorten their loan term — but there are other reasons too, like switching from an adjustable to a fixed rate, or tapping into home equity for a major expense. The key is weighing the costs of refinancing against the real benefit you'll see over time. Sometimes a small change in rates justifies it; sometimes it doesn't. That's where having a clear picture of your situation matters most. If you're curious whether refinancing could help you right now, I'm happy to walk through the numbers with you. There's no obligation — just honest talk about whether it makes sense for your goals.
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Tip of the Week
Test your sump pump before the rainy season by pouring water into the pit — a failed pump can lead to serious basement flooding.
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Tips for Homeowners
Rate Lock Strategy: When and How Long to Lock
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1.
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A rate lock guarantees your interest rate for a set period — typically 30, 45, or 60 days. Longer locks cost more but protect you if the process takes longer than expected.
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2.
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Lock when you're under contract and confident the deal will close. Don't lock before you have a signed purchase agreement — you're paying for protection you may not need.
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3.
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If rates drop after you lock, ask your lender about a float-down option. Some lenders offer this for a fee, allowing you to take advantage of a lower rate if the market moves in your favor.
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Mortgage News Daily
Home builders are increasingly pessimistic about the market ahead, with their confidence index dropping to its weakest point in over a decade. The culprits remain familiar: high mortgage rates, rising construction costs, and a shortage of workers and available land. This slowdown typically means fewer new homes on the market, which can affect inventory and prices where you live.
| Key takeaway: fewer new homes being built now could mean tighter inventory and potentially higher prices for buyers in the coming year or two. |
Read full article →
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Mortgage News Daily
National home prices picked up momentum in recent months, though the gains are modest by historical standards and actually lag behind inflation when you account for rising living costs. The real story is that price growth is not happening equally everywhere—some regions are seeing much stronger appreciation than others. Where you live matters more than ever for understanding your home's wealth-building potential.
| Key takeaway: before buying or refinancing, know your local market's price trends, because national headlines don't tell the whole story. |
Read full article →
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Mortgage News Daily
Housing starts declined in September, particularly for single-family homes, signaling builders are pumping the brakes amid tough conditions. Building permits held relatively steady, though, suggesting builders haven't completely lost confidence in the medium term. The slowdown is real, but it's measured rather than a dramatic collapse.
| Key takeaway: slower new construction means inventory may remain tight, which typically supports prices but limits buyer choices. |
Read full article →
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Mortgage News Daily
Signed contracts on existing homes ticked up slightly in August, driven by strength in the South and West even as the Northeast and Midwest softened. While contracts are still running well below last year's levels, the fact that buyers are making moves despite elevated rates suggests some market resilience. Regional differences are pronounced, so your local market may be performing quite differently from the national trend.
| Key takeaway: regional strength matters—if you're in a hot market, competition may still be real, but cooler regions may offer more negotiating room. |
Read full article →
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Have questions about how any of this affects your mortgage or home purchase? We're here to help — reach out to the Mike Gurley team any time and we'll walk you through your options. |
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